2006 U.S. Senate races

About a year from now the mid-term elections will be in full steam. Baseball Crank take a look ahead to see which seats are most vulnerable to changing hands. He took the incumbents percentage of votes in 2000 and added the incumbents party's percentage in the 2004 presidential election. It does tend to reason that a Republican elected in a close race in 2000 in a state Kerry won in 2004 could be more vulnerable and vice versa. Problem with this is there is no way to account for the discouraging affect of facing a Senate incumbent. Unless they have broken with party leadership (Dewine?), most incumbents will not be challenged in the primaries. The challenger would be beaten and bruised in a primary and run into a rested incumbent with a whole lot of money to spend on TV.