Supreme Court stability
A paragraph in an article by the Washington Times about potential candidates for eventual Supreme Court vacancies caught my attention.
Not since 1823 has the nation gone 10 years without a vacancy on the Supreme Court the last appointment to the high court was 11 years ago.That got me wondering what happened after the last period of court stability. President Madison named Gabriel Duval to the Supreme Court in 1912. Then there was not another opening until President Monroe nominated the Secretary of the Navy, Smith Thompson to the court. I assumed there would be several appointments in short order after that period of stability. However, after Thompson there was only one other appointment prior to the 1830's. Age finally caught up to the Marshall Court during Andrew Jackson's administration. Jackson named 5 justices including Chief Justice Taney who replaced John Marshall after 34 years as Chief. The Taney court would go on to play a pivotal role in the drama leading up to the Civil War. While the first appointment after a period of stability didn't lead to a rush of openings, it was followed shortly thereafter by a large turnover.
What can we infer based on the history of the court? Not a whole lot. Particularly in this period of heightened awareness of the power of the court. Justices are more likely than ever to hang on past the next presidential election in hopes that the next president would nominate a replacement more in line with their point of view. The next few years will be interesting. Justice Thomas is the only justice under 65 years of age and 4 of the justices (including Chief Justice Reinquist) have been treated for cancer. I'm fairly certain there will be at least one opening during President Bush's second term. However, those expecting more than two may be disappointed. There are only 4 conservatives on the bench (Reinquist, O'Conner, Scalia, and Thomas) and I'd be very surprised if any of the liberal justices wouldn't hold out if they could for the next administration.
Here is a link to a list of Supreme Court Justices.
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