2006 Election Predictions
Here are my predictions for tomorrow, many of which I hope are wrong.
Ohio Governor's Race:
Strickland 54% Blackwell 41%
The better man will lose this race. I'm sad to say this but I believe a couple percentage points in this race can be attributed to the vestiges of racism. Anecdotal evidence is not admissible in court but last time I checked this is just a blog. Anyways, my brother-in-law related a story where someone he knows made a comment like "I ain't voting for a n!&&@#." I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing he isn't the only idiot who thinks along those lines.
Contested Senate races:
OH - Brown 49% DeWine 48% Dem pick up (Boxer and Kerry no longer in the
fight for most liberal senator title)
TN - Corker 52% Ford 45% Rep retention
MD - Steele 50% Cardin 46% Rep pick up
VA - Allen 53% Webb 44% Rep retention
NJ - Menendez 49% Kean 49% Dem retention after month long recount
RI - Chafee 47% Whitehouse 46% Rep retention
PA - Santorum 49% Casey 47% Rep retention
MO - Talent 51% McKaskill 48% Rep retention
MT - Tester 50% Burns 47% Dem pick up
AZ - Kyl 56% Pederson 42% Rep retention (this shouldn't even be listed)
MI - Stabenow 49% Bouchard 46% Dem retention
MN - Klobuchar 54% Kennedy 42% Dem retention
WA - Cantwell 52% McGavick 46% Dem retention
WV - Byrd 58% Raese 39% Dem retention if Byrd lives another day
Total: Dems pick up 2 seats. New senate breakdown 53 Rep, 45 Dem, and 2 Ind.
House of Representatives:
I'm not crazy enough to attempt to pick 435 house races or even the 75 seriously in play. There are too many races that could go to either party for anyone to say with much confidence today who will have the majority come January. Additionally, unlike national or statewide races most House races are polled infrequently or not at all. My guess is Dems will lead 219 to 216 in the 110th Congress. The Republicans best hope is that the polls are as bad as they have been historically.