Weather predicting is a crapshoot

From the same professionals who told us yesterday would be mostly sunny all day (never mind the torrential thunderstorms) we get this revised prediction:

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will not be as active as initially projected, due in part to a cooling of ocean temperatures this summer, private forecaster WSI Corp. said in its updated tropical weather outlook on Monday.

In addition to the fighting in the Mideast, higher fuel costs can be partly attributed to the anticipated heavy hurricane season. However, if there is no weather related disruption of fuel delivery don't expect a decrease in gas prices.

Separately, how does the talk of cooling ocean temperatures square with the crazy global warming theory?